Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian special services are conducting a broad disinformation campaign in disseminating an alleged narrative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s illegitimacy. The primary goal of these psychological operations is to undermine unity within Ukrainian society and dissuade further Western support for Ukraine.  A... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow says that Western actions in Gotland, Bornholm, and other islands in the Baltic Sea threaten Russian national security and that Russia will soon have no choice but to respond militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly used the logic that Russia wants... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasing efforts to work with foreign youth, journalists, and politicians through the federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo by offering training from leading Russian propagandists. Simultaneously, in Russia itself, raids on conscripts, illegal assignments to the front, and coercion to sign contracts with... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC investments and cooperation in the South Pacific enhance its military reach and ability to monitor strategic regions. This engagement serves not only economic interests but also significant geopolitical and security purposes, particularly in nations along key maritime and aerial routes. There is... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s term technically expired in May, but the constitution and other laws allow him to continue until elections can be held, leading the Kremlin to speculate about Zelenskyy’s status and Ukraine’s presidency. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to impose his... MORE

Executive Summary: The ban on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia significantly disrupts the country’s defense capabilities. Preemptive strikes on Russian assembly areas and air bases would be easier and more cost-effective than countering troops and bombers along the contact line.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is trying to impede any Western resolve in allowing long-distance Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia to avoid destabilizing energy infrastructure and disrupting the lives of everyday Russians. Moscow uses the fear of escalation and nuclear saber-rattling to inflame worries... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE