Executive Summary: On June 22, an Islamist terrorist entered the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus mid-service, opening fire on the crowd before detonating his suicide vest. The attack killed 25 and injured 63. While it is not yet known who is responsible for... MORE

Executive Summary: The Arakan Army (AA), an ethno-nationalist rebel group active in Myanmar, has managed to seize some 90 percent of Rakhine State, with several major cities under siege and the entirety of the border with Bangladesh under their control. The group is receiving increasing... MORE

Executive Summary: In the aftermath of the Indian air strikes on Pakistan on May 6, militant groups active in and around Pakistan took a variety of approaches to responding to the brief escalation within their respective propaganda apparatuses: Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) initially... MORE

Executive Summary: Serious crime has risen to its highest level since 2010 in Russia because of the influx of weapons from Moscow’s war against Ukraine, as well as the Kremlin’s increased focus on prosecuting corruption. The influx of weapons into Russia, brought into the country... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 4, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) lost all off-site power supply due to nearby Russian drone strikes for the ninth time since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation and operator of Zaporizhzhia NPP since March 2022, has expressed... MORE

Executive Summary: Violent attacks on people and property in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine are threatening Moscow’s control there. The attackers, many of whom are Russian veterans with criminal pasts, are better armed and sometimes outnumber the local police. These veterans are often joined by... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Wagner Group is being withdrawn from Mali after a three-and-a-half-year deployment with a mixed record of battlefield successes that have come at enormous civilian cost. Wagner’s replacement with the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps may signal a change in Kremlin tactics. Regardless... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization. Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,”... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Cossack Society (VsKO) drafted an agreement in June that would formally establish a Cossack mobilization reserve. Cossack forces are already active in Russia’s Combat Army Reserve (BARS) system, with about 25,000 Cossacks in 18 battalions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE