Executive Summary: The beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration highlights contrasting views of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The West views it as a non-sensical distortion that should be stopped, and Russian President Vladimir Putin views it as a confrontation with the West. The state... MORE

Executive Summary: In Yemen, the internationally recognized government-aligned National Resistance Forces (NRF) are led by General Tariq Saleh, the nephew of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh’s faction holds a critical chokepoint, which prevents the Houthis from seizing the rest of the country’s Red Sea... MORE

Executive Summary: Twan Mrat Naing is the leader of one of the major anti-junta ethnic factions in Myanmar, the Arakan Army (AA). Twan has pushed fairly successfully for a separate Rakhine State under his leadership, either independent or in confederation with a new national government... MORE

Executive Summary: Chaudhry Muneeb Ur Rehman Jatt, better known as Commander Muneeb, is a former al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader who revolutionized the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) recruitment and propaganda efforts. The close coordination between al-Qaeda and its former leaders and the TTP, reflects... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow finds itself challenged in the Caspian Sea by Kazakhstan, whose naval forces there are better prepared to cope with the sea drying up and whose focus is not distracted by conflicts elsewhere. Kremlin hawks such as Nikolai Patrushev are alarmed and calling... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s arms exports dropped by 92 percent from 2021 to 2024 due to redirected resources for Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, and funding issues. The number of countries purchasing Russian arms has dropped dramatically. Major customers such as India have shown caution or shifted to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE

Executive Summary: Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the... MORE