Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is reviving the Cold War-era Balaklava submarine base in Crimea as it faces frequent and precise maritime strikes from Ukrainian forces. The base’s outdated dimensions, however, prevent it from housing modern submarines, limiting its strategic value and forcing Russia to reposition key... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow finds itself challenged in the Caspian Sea by Kazakhstan, whose naval forces there are better prepared to cope with the sea drying up and whose focus is not distracted by conflicts elsewhere. Kremlin hawks such as Nikolai Patrushev are alarmed and calling... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises in the Far East and Arctic as China’s involvement in the region grows and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expands into the Arctic. Moscow is increasingly aligning with Beijing to bolster its position... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, China and Russia held a joint Arctic naval exercise, North-Joint 2024, reflecting their deepening security relationship centered on countering Western influence and reinforcing each other in strategic regions. The exercise underscores Russia and China’s shared strategic and economic interests in securing... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 12, a Russian Kh-22 cruise missile hit the unarmed civilian bulk carrier Aya bringing grain to Egypt, another example of a Russian attack where civilian vessels suffered collateral damage. The consequences of Russian missiles damaging civilian vessels, especially vessels exporting grain... MORE

Executive Summary: Western officials have raised concerns about increased Russian naval and sabotage activity, which could potentially target the global underwater cable network vital for international communication, financial transactions, and trade. Russia’s specialized unit, the Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research (GUGI), possesses a significant fleet... MORE

Executive Summary: After Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in March, Moscow sharply criticized Stockholm and others in the alliance for plans to improve the defenses of Gotland and other islands in the Baltic Sea. This criticism was clearly intended to dissuade them from... MORE

Executive Summary: This year, Ukraine has taken the initiative at sea and focused more strikes on Crimea and Russian positions in the Black Sea. With new tactics and weaponry, these attacks have become more difficult for the Russian military to counter. The end of 2023... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy has demonstrated its ability to counter the world’s supposed third-best military through innovative weaponry and unmanned naval drones. The use of unmanned systems, particularly drones, has emerged as a critical element in modern naval warfare, with both... MORE