Executive Summary: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is unlikely to fundamentally change Tehran’s foreign policy approach immediately, but it is already affecting Iranian domestic politics and could eventually affect its relations with the outside world. Any change would likely first be seen first... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unwilling to trust anyone outside his inner circle and failed to promote younger politicians–effectively demanding that Russia’s aging political elite continue serving in government. Andrei Belousov, the newly appointed defense minister, is expected to resolve military overspending... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Thousands of protestors demand an end to the delimitation and demarcation of the Gazakh–Tavush border between Armenia and Azerbaijan while pushing to remove Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from power. An Archbishop of the Armenian Apostolic Church is leading these protests, raising questions... MORE

Executive Summary: Protests intensified in Georgia after the parliament approved the second reading of the reintroduced Russian-style “foreign agents” law, as police arrested dozens of protesters and several opposition leaders were beaten by unknown assailants. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze refused to visit the United... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin began his new presidential term by holding a week of events to demonstrate his continued reign but has not received the blind following he anticipated. The Kremlin is playing up its nuclear capabilities as a response to the expansion... MORE

Executive Summary:  Ethnic Chechens in Dagestan and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have stepped up demands that Makhachkala live up to its promises to restore a Chechen district in Dagestan by the end of 2024. Doing so would likely require the Dagestani authorities to expel the... MORE

Executive Summary: The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) has become the central body in overseeing any political transition in Belarus. The assembly has been vested with powers that give it supreme authority over the president’s removal from office, though Lukashenka was elected as the ABPA’s chair.... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow has proposed legal action to target the “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement,” an organization that, as far as journalists and analysts can deduce, does not exist. The proposal would allow the authorities to persecute Russian regionalists more aggressively, including those who are not opposed... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described any breakthrough in normalizing relations with Türkiye as “epoch-making” for the region. Armenia has displayed a willingness to take criticism from Türkiye seriously, upsetting many in the Armenian diaspora who fear Pashinyan will make unilateral concessions similar... MORE