Executive Summary: The hostage taking in a Rostov detention center on June 16 has highlighted growing problems in the Russian penal system, including overcrowding, a shortage of guards, and a shift in the balance of power between ordinary criminals and political prisoners. The Rostov action... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka met in Minsk on May 23 and 24 to discuss synchronizing the second and third phases of their joint non-strategic nuclear exercises. The composition of forces and means involved in the exercises suggests... MORE

Executive Summary: Reports are spreading that Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili is secretly working with the Kremlin on a confederative structure for the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite the bold claims, some believe that the reintegration plans are merely a pre-election bluff... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland did not provide much substantive progress in signing a peace agreement, but the wide participation of the international community demonstrated a sharp rebuttal to the Kremlin’s efforts to hijack the agenda. Russian President Vladimir Putin hastily presented... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sharing of the number of contracted soldiers, prisoners, and losses, as well as yield of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons demonstrate that he is an active participant in Kremlin propaganda’s “active measures.” Putin seeks to demoralize Ukrainian society with the... MORE

Executive Summary:  The enormous rare-earth mineral reserves in Central Asia are intensifying geopolitical competition among China, the West, and Russia and have been complicated by their competing agendas. Beijing wants to develop a monopoly on rare earths, the United States and the European Union want... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s government continues to see success its foreign policy while conducting state visits to Azerbaijan and Mongolia as well as hosting Hungarian officials and businessmen. The Belarusian opposition, however, is experiencing an identity crisis, evidenced in the low polling turnout... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has taken a more conservative stance on the war in Gaza, maintaining relations with Israel, on the one hand, and avoiding declaring Hamas a terrorist organization, on the other. Baku’s position represents a break from the responses of Türkiye, Pakistan, and many... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has emphasized the development of the country’s rare-earth mining sector as a primary goal of his government due to the country’s massive reserves. Uzbekistan has begun to work with the European Union, United States, and United Kingdom to develop... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE