Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Executive Summary: The Trust, the Soviet secret police’s first great intelligence operation in the 1920s, is making a comeback under Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Moscow setting up Federal Security Service (FSB) groups to penetrate, hamstring, and ultimately discredit emigres opposed to his regime. These... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting from overt nuclear brinkmanship to using Russia’s nuclear energy program as a “peaceful” tool of influence, especially through technology transfers to developing countries. Putin’s proposal to extend some terms of the U.S.–Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s youth organizations have played an important role in the Kremlin’s indoctrination effort, with Russian President Putin himself facilitating their development. Groups such as Yunarmia, Avangard camps, and the “Movement of the First” serve as platforms for indoctrination and militarization of their members,... MORE

Executive Summary: The first phone call between U.S. President Trump and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in August, followed by high-level meetings in Minsk, marked a surprising shift after 15 years of estrangement between the two countries.  The issue of political prisoners has become the central... MORE

Executive Summary: Official economic data on the first six months of 2025 indicates that Russia’s war economy is stagnating as military industries absorb resources from civilian sectors.  In the first half of 2025, 67 of Russia’s 89 regions reported severe budget deficits, with industrial hubs... MORE

Executive Summary: Global warming, increased human use, and declines in the flow of water from rivers that feed the Caspian Sea are threatening its viability. Food production from the sea is declining, and the Caspian’s ports and sea lanes are silting up, limiting north–south and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and siloviki-linked Telegram channels are promoting disinformation of a purported plan for a European “occupation” of Transnistria and subsequent attack on Russian forces in the region, in what appears to be a coordinated campaign. These channels are aiming... MORE

Executive Summary: China Railway Container Transport Corp. Ltd, on August 7, joined the Middle Corridor Multimodal Ltd, a joint railway venture between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Georgia, to facilitate the development of the Middle Corridor. Progress on the Zangezur Corridor, rebranded as Trump Route for International... MORE