Executive Summary: No Russian institution has lost more ground since President Vladimir Putin launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine than the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP)—a development that undermines Putin’s “Russian world” vision.  These self-inflicted losses are disrupting the Moscow church’s... MORE

Executive Summary: New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s claim of responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall outside of Moscow, has led the Kremlin to stoke Islamophobic sentiments throughout Russia. Representatives of Russia’s Muslim minority warn fellow Muslims that the attack may lead to... MORE

Executive Summary: Ideology-driven paramilitary groups in Russia have grown significantly in size and influence since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, with the Russian Imperial Movement and “Rusich” representing perhaps the most active entities in this regard. Both groups are built on far-right, ultranationalist,... MORE

Executive Summary:  Kazakh and Italian officials met in March to underscore their healthy bilateral relations and discuss increasing economic and trade cooperation. Kazakhstan and Italy’s strategic economic partnership gives the countries a foothold to deepen their engagement with the European Union and Central Asia, especially... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Navy’s reserve of admirals and ships is steadily decreasing as senior military commanders are losing their positions following numerous setbacks for the Black Sea Fleet at the hands of Ukraine’s drone and missile offensive. These failures and the destruction of one-third... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia suffered one of the worst terrorist attacks in its history on March 22 when a group of Islamist terrorists attacked Crocus City Hall in Moscow, but the Putin regime’s response appears even more worrisome. Putin has deepened the divide between Moscow and... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Movement of the First, a successor to the Soviet Pioneers, is growing, indicating the potential for a more radicalized, militarized Russian future. The Kremlin-sponsored organization is ostensibly designed to promote creative work and life in Russia, but its actions suggest that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declarations regarding Poland once again demonstrate that the Kremlin is trying to create and strengthen contradictions between its geopolitical enemies. Moscow has a similar policy regarding other Western countries, and Kremlin analysts do not conceal the fact that Russia... MORE