Executive Summary: Relations between Tbilisi and Kyiv have reached an all-time low as the two governments remain at odds over Russia’s war against Ukraine and the release of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a Ukrainian citizen, from prison. Georgia’s ruling party has claimed that the... MORE

 Executive Summary: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s tour of the South Caucasus was closely observed by Moscow, whose centuries-old hegemony in the region is at stake. Armenia continues to pursue closer ties with the West, while Azerbaijan maintains a “multi-vector” foreign policy posture to avoid conflict... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik’s recent visits to India and Mongolia highlight Minsk’s growing ambitions to court alternative economic partners to Russia and the West. These efforts reflect a non-ideological basis for Belarus’s foreign policy, as pragmatic economic considerations almost always trump ideological... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) terrorist attack outside of Moscow was an abject failure of the Russian intelligence services, leading officials to push conspiracy theories claiming that Ukraine and the West were involved. Moscow’s exploitation of Tajik immigrants, who perform the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently declared that Russia has been “at war” ever since the West began supporting Ukraine with arms in deviating from the “special military operation” designation and hinting at a future mobilization. The Kremlin and the Russian people are... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s interest and level of subversive activities in Moldova has grown, leading the Moldovan Foreign Ministry to state that Russia’s actions “undermine Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The latest escalation in bilateral ties provides an informative snapshot of Russia’s intentions for Moldova, exploiting... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian propaganda has admitted to the involvement of Islamic State militants in the attack on Crocus City Hall while pushing the narrative that the West is to blame at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s direction.  Direct orders from the Kremlin to lay blame for... MORE

Executive Summary: No Russian institution has lost more ground since President Vladimir Putin launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine than the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP)—a development that undermines Putin’s “Russian world” vision.  These self-inflicted losses are disrupting the Moscow church’s... MORE

Executive Summary: New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries... MORE

Executive Summary: The Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s claim of responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall outside of Moscow, has led the Kremlin to stoke Islamophobic sentiments throughout Russia. Representatives of Russia’s Muslim minority warn fellow Muslims that the attack may lead to... MORE