Executive Summary: The first anniversary of the war in Gaza has revealed the near-total disappearance of Russia’s influence in the Middle East, as it has not been able to partner with those averse to US positions. Moscow hopes to exploit the shift in international attention... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a “victory plan” to the Joe Biden administration and two US presidential candidates. The plan envisages arming Ukraine adequately for negotiating “peace through strength” with Moscow as well as strengthening economic sanctions on Russia. The military situation, damaged... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow released the draft proposal for Russia’s federal budget for 2025 and 2026–2027, which shows that the national defense budget will increase significantly from previous years, especially in comparison to the period before its war against Ukraine. For 2023 and 2024, Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian cabinet is in support of a Duma proposal to allow the governors of oblasts, krais, and republics to form their own militias to deal with natural disasters and military interventions, such as the Ukrainian advancement into Kursk oblast. Moscow is confident... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current and prospective bilateral relations between Belarus and Lithuania, signaling a desire from Minsk to further engage with Vilnius in the future. In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by expanding the list of conditions that would justify such a measure. These updates are intended to serve as a warning to the West and legitimize... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia continues to conduct misinformation campaigns against Europe. As its war in Ukraine continues and Europeans become tired of the prolonged conflict, fewer people will be engaged and thus more susceptible to disinformation coming from Russia. Russia’s current disinformation campaign revolves around three... MORE

Executive Summary: September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War and the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing. Baku continues to demand that Armenia... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Russian State Duma announced that it conceptually supports a new law to ban “the childfree ideology,” that is, the conscious refusal to have children in Russia, in an effort to “preserve family values.” In practice, these measures are not capable of improving... MORE

Executive Summary: The Saimaa Canal, linking Lake Saimaa to the Gulf of Finland via Russian territory, is becoming a flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between Moscow and Helsinki and, more generally, between Russia and NATO. Both Russia and Finland have cut back their use of... MORE