Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The... MORE

Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE

Executive Summary: Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are entering into bilateral security agreements with Ukraine outside the alliance’s and the North Atlantic Treaty’s framework. This procedure seems to de-couple allied assistance to Ukraine from the country’s NATO accession process and to delay... MORE

Executive Summary: While many Belarusians have left the country since 2020 and the initiation of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, the migration of Western fugitives to Belarus has attracted more attention due to their questionable motives and access to government secrets. These fugitives give Minsk the opportunity... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Crocus City Hall terrorist attack has led to a rise in Russian xenophobia against Central Asians and a strong crackdown on Central Asian migrants from the Kremlin. Labor migrants from Central Asia make up a majority of Russia’s migrant labor market, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Thousands of protestors demand an end to the delimitation and demarcation of the Gazakh–Tavush border between Armenia and Azerbaijan while pushing to remove Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from power. An Archbishop of the Armenian Apostolic Church is leading these protests, raising questions... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s hybrid strategy against Ukraine continues to focus heavily on crippling civilian infrastructure to undermine the Ukrainian economy. Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage system, with the aim of weakening the European Union since it has increasingly relied on Ukraine’s storage... MORE

Executive Summary: Booming demand for Russians who know Chinese, a product of Putin’s turn to the East, is exacerbating long-standing fears that Moscow will lose control over lands east of the Urals. The flight of Russians from the vast and underpopulated region, combined with the... MORE

Executive Summary: Protests intensified in Georgia after the parliament approved the second reading of the reintroduced Russian-style “foreign agents” law, as police arrested dozens of protesters and several opposition leaders were beaten by unknown assailants. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze refused to visit the United... MORE