Latest Eurasia Daily Monitor Articles
Prospects for a Strategic Military Partnership Between Turkey and Ukraine
One of the most undesirable geopolitical scenarios for Russia would be the establishment of a strategic alliance between the two other major Black Sea regional powers—Turkey and Ukraine. Such an outcome would not only hamper the Kremlin’s plans in Europe’s East and the wider Black... MORE
With ‘Azov Debacle’ as Pretext, Russia Further Militarizes Crimea and Obstructs Passage Through Northern Sea Route
The November 25 “incident” in the Black Sea involving Russia’s illegal seizure of three Ukrainian military vessels and their personnel—in actuality, an explicit violation of the norms of international maritime law (see EDM, November 26, 28, 29)—has become a “legitimate” pretext for Moscow to conduct... MORE
Caspian Flotilla Highlights Growing International Role of Russia’s Coastal Navy
Many military commentators in Moscow and the West have pointed to Russia’s loss of a navy capable of blue-water actions (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, November 30), but they have not focused on the ways in which Russia is beefing up its coastal surface forces and using them... MORE
Georgian Opposition Refuses to Recognize Results of Presidential Election
The Georgian opposition staged a rally, on December 2, in the center of the capital city of Tbilisi, protesting the outcome of last month’s presidential election. Demonstrators called for annulling the results of the vote as well as demanded early parliamentary elections (Agenda.ge, December 2).... MORE
Azov Sea, Kerch Strait: Evolution of Their Purported Legal Status (Part One)
Russia has perpetrated acts of war against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait and the adjacent portion of the Black Sea on November 25 (see EDM, November 26, 28, 29). Moreover, during the preceding months, Russia had systematically and aggressively obstructed Ukrainian and international shipping... MORE
Putin Trapped in an Escalatory Spiral of His Own Making
The tweet by United States President Donald Trump, canceling his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was such a shock for the Kremlin that a response was postponed until “official information” would arrive (RIA Novosti, November 29).... MORE
Internal Discord in CSTO May Be Pushing Armenia to Leave Russia-Led Alliance
The issue of naming a new secretary general of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has become another bone of contention between supposed allies Armenia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The alliance’s heretofore formal head, General Yuri Khachaturov, a former chief of the General Staff of... MORE
Revolt of the ‘Disgruntled’: Russian Mercenaries Seek Justice in International Courts
A story that started on July 5, when the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly (a national war veterans’ organization) demanded that Moscow legalize so-called Private Military Companies (PMC) (see EDM, August 1) has received an unexpected update. On November 19, members of more than a dozen Russian... MORE
Is Chechnya Finally Going to Control Its Own Oil Reserves—and Thus Its Destiny?
In one pivotal scene in David Lean’s 1962 film Lawrence of Arabia, Thomas. E. Lawrence asks the British general in Cairo, Sir Edmund Allenby, to provide the Arab revolt with artillery. The general’s political advisor says that if he gives the Arabs artillery, he will... MORE
Russia’s Attack of Ukrainian Naval Ships in Black Sea: First Shots of Possible Winter War?
On November 25, two Ukrainian gunboats, together with a tug, attempted to cross from the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine controls two major port cities—Mariupol and Berdyansk. The Ukrainian convoy was stopped by Russian Federal Security Service... MORE