Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Fears that Russia will interfere in Georgia’s October 2024 parliamentary election are increasing following the appointment of a new pro-Kremlin special representative of the Georgian prime minister who oversees relations with Russia. In recent years, the ruling elite of Georgia have been using informal... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan has been developing its space industry in the past couple of years to boost its international reputation and elevate the country as a regional hub for science and technology. Expansion of the Azerbaijani space industry has led to partnerships with Israel, Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia’s recent presidential “elections” are likely to mark a turning point in President Vladimir Putin’s behavior at home, abroad, and toward those Russians who oppose him. While optimists may hope he will use his unchallenged power to make peace and reduce repression, many... MORE

Executive Summary: Berlin and Astana have been working to increase oil exports from Kazakhstan since the end of 2022 after Western sanctions forced Germany to explore alternatives to Russian energy sources. Increasing Kazakh oil exports seems unlikely as shipments would pass through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is looking to Latin America to send Soviet-era and Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for modern American-made analogs. Many Latin American countries are hesitant to agree to this request because they do not want to break their treaties with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has proposed a pause of the fighting in Ukraine in exchange for strategic arms and space negotiations with the West.  The Russian armed forces have been taking Soviet-era arms out of storage as a solution to its dwindling supply of weapons despite... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE