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Latest Eurasia Daily Monitor Articles
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New Sanctions and Lukashenka’s Improvised Reaction to Belarus’s Western Neighbors
On August 1, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka paid a working visit to Kamenets district in Brest oblast, right on the border with Poland. His major task was to personally observe harvesting operations—one of Lukashenka’s hobbies derived from his professional background. Still, after having lunch with... MORE
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Moscow’s Mixed Signals About Its Strategic Intent in the Black Sea
On August 5, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense declared that all ships traveling to Russia’s Black Sea ports or the Russian-occupied territories will be considered “military carriers.” Specifically, this designation includes the Russian ports of Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman (Epravda.com.ua, August 5).... MORE
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When Will Western Naval Powers Return to the Black Sea and on What Conditions? (Part Three)
*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The current absence of Western naval powers in the Black Sea marks a sharp break with the history of their steady presence. This new situation, now in its 20th month, stems from two separate but harmonized decisions: that of... MORE
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Will Russian Youth Be Educated by Criminals?
Prisoners and “veterans of the special military operation (SVO)” occupy an increasingly significant place in various spheres of Russian society, even if this does not especially suit the Kremlin. Pro-Kremlin experts complain of manpower shortages, noting that the economy has reached a new 27-year low... MORE
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Moscow Shifting Focus to Sea Lanes Rather Than Railways for North-South Corridor
When Moscow announced plans in 2000 for the creation of a north-south trade corridor, its initial goal was to bypass the Suez Canal; however, recently, this passage has been used primarily to evade Western sanctions (Realtribune.ru, November 30, 2022). The Russian authorities have focused on... MORE
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Ukraine’s Slow-Moving Counteroffensive: Problems and Solutions (Part One)
At the time of writing, Ukrainian forces had managed to reach the so-called “Surovikin Line” in a number of places. Ukrainian units finally managed to break through the Russian echeloned defensive lines in the area of Priyutnoye-Staromayorskoye-Novodonetske and now threaten to enter the operational zone... MORE
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When Will Western Naval Powers Return to the Black Sea and on What Conditions? (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Just as it eschewed declaring war on Ukraine—proclaiming, instead, a “special military operation”—Russia never officially announced a naval blockade of Ukraine. A declared blockade accompanying a declared state of war would have enabled Russia to, however abusively, stop and search any commercial... MORE
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Russian Arms Production Q2 2023
According to recent leaks, Russian national defense spending surpassed 5.59 trillion rubles (more than $72.2 billion) for the first six months of 2023. The overall annual budget for the year was originally planned for 5.1 trillion rubles, or $74.7 billion according to the estimated exchange... MORE
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Ukraine’s ‘Counteroffensive’ in the Global South
The low-profile and high-impact meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5 and 6 was never intended to produce a road map for ending the war in Ukraine; neither was it a summit, since the invitations sent to some 40 countries specified the level of... MORE
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In Opposition to Chisinau’s Pro-EU Course, Gagauz to Open Representation in Moscow
Transnistria has almost always attracted more attention as a tool for Moscow in limiting Moldova’s freedom of action than Gagauzia, a Turkic but Orthodox Christian autonomy in the country’s southeast that the Russian authorities have also used to influence Chisinau’s decision-making (see EDM, June 23,... MORE