Executive Summary: Russian women who oppose Putin’s war and want their men to come home have adopted a new tactic, wordlessly banging pots outside their homes to protest the war. The movement has been gaining momentum, and the Kremlin has responded by increasing repression and... MORE

Executive Summary Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow now likely considers US commercial space assets as part of Washington’s military infrastructure following the Department of Defense’s issuance of the 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy. Russia’s military capabilities in space are highly asymmetric compared to US methods, and the Russian military... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China... MORE

Executive Summary  Russia is actively expanding ties with Niger’s military junta to consolidate control over resource-rich assets and to push out Western influence. Moscow has now signed multiple agreements to provide security guarantees to Abdourahamane Tchiani and potentially take over the rights to several Nigerien... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka approved a bill that would suspend Belarus’s participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), removing numerical ceilings on armed forces and main conventional weapons systems. Numerous voices in the West have suspected that Minsk could... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s drone attack on defense industries in Tatarstan has shown the reach of Kyiv’s weapons into Russia and raised questions in the non-Russian republics about Moscow’s ability to defend them. Kazan has concluded that it cannot count on the Russian government to defend... MORE

Executive Summary: The All-Russian Cossack Society continues to establish outposts in the occupied territories of Ukraine under Moscow’s direction.  The state-registered Cossack movement is working to deepen the control of loyal structures in the occupied regions and take advantage of existing social beliefs, particularly through... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian mobilization will be necessary to repel a possible Russian offensive in the coming summer, but a draft mobilization law is currently being held up in Ukraine’s parliament. Such uncertainty has a negative impact on Ukrainian society, opening the way to various manipulations... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is actively using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to drum up support for the war in Ukraine and to spread its influence abroad. Moscow has long used the ROC to achieve its goals by establishing spy networks throughout the post-Soviet space... MORE