Presidents Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin of Russia met with top European leaders in several overlapping formats on October 16–17, in Milan. The tenth Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), a talk shop of more than 50 heads of state and government, provided a convenient occasion... MORE

Western powers lost control and, to some extent, lost comprehension of the situation in Ukraine during the Euromaidan mass protest movement and its aftermath. They then trailed behind the events throughout Russia’s war against Ukraine to date. The European Commission’s lame-duck status during most of... MORE

The pro-Europe Maidan revolution in February and Russia’s intervention in Donbas in April triggered two parallel processes of regime change in Ukraine. The world has focused on political transformation in Kyiv and in Ukraine writ large. But far less awareness exists of the nature of... MORE

Russia’s grand policy objective toward Ukraine can be defined, broadly, as doing away with Ukraine’s sovereign statehood. Toward that goal, Russia is resorting to military power (in a progression from hybrid to conventional), political-psychological warfare, economic pressures, and phased-in territorial fragmentation (Donbas partition, Novorossiya project,... MORE

Beyond the newly imposed partition lines, Russian regular and irregular forces are incessantly attacking Ukrainian positions in the Debaltseve salient, the Donetsk airport, and around Mariupil on the Azov Sea. Capturing these positions—a centrally located rail and road transport hub, the international airport, and the... MORE

Russia is using the ceasefire as an opportunity to cement and expand its military presence, directly as well as through the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR). Following the September 5 and September 19–20 armistice agreements, Russian regular and proxy forces have re-captured considerable... MORE

The ceasefire agreements, signed on September 5 and 19–20, have, in no sense, halted Russia’s multi-dimensional war against Ukraine. This includes a still-“hot” military conflict and a “cold” propaganda war. Nor could these agreements stop Russia from prosecuting the conflict in the absence of effective... MORE

Addressing an international investment forum in Moscow yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin adopted an unusually restrained tone toward Ukraine. In effect, Putin seems to suggest a framework for political dialogue toward stabilizing Russia-Ukraine relations (kremlin.ru, Interfax, October 2). Putin’s salient propositions are: 1) “It is... MORE

The armistice, slowly taking hold in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (collectively known as the Donbas region), basically consigns parts of those territories to Russia’s military and political control, both directly and through local proxies. Facing Russia one-on-one, on the battlefield as well as in... MORE

The shape of any political settlement will depend on whether Russian troops and paramilitary personnel with their weaponry are evacuated from what is legally Ukraine’s territory, or remain deployed there. Point 9 of the September 20 memorandum is unfulfillable as formulated (and it is hard... MORE