Executive Summary: The degradation of the Russian army in Ukraine has made it a crucible for the growth of criminal attitudes and extremist beliefs that will threaten Russian society and government as veterans return home. When as many as 700,000 veterans do eventually return home—100,000... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility. Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating... MORE

Executive Summary: The relative absence of supreme leader Xi Jinping in authoritative media could indicate that his power, though still unassailable, is waning. There were no references to Xi or his eponymous ideology in coverage of crucial trade talks with the United States, the announcement... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas postings, Ambassador Bajarūnas served as the Ambassador of Lithuania to Russia and as Deputy Ambassador of... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE

Executive Summary: The united front operates abroad as a political machine, helping to get people elected by fielding candidates, mobilizing votes, and building power bases. Asian-Americans are growing in numbers yet remain key swing voters. Beijing’s role in shaping the political leanings of this demographic... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus has announced a significant downsizing and relocation of the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises with Russia in an apparent effort to reduce tensions with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The reduced scale of the exercises brings them below international thresholds that require... MORE