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Azerbaijan Seeks End to EU Mission in Armenia as Pashinyan Offers Border Compromise
Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE
Instead of Joint Sword-2024C, PLA Intensifies Winter Naval Training
Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval training drills near Taiwan and surrounding the First Island Chain on December 9–11 did not constitute a full-scale joint exercise but sent a signal to the incoming US administration. Beijing’s power projection demonstration, involving 60 vessels, signals to... MORE
Innovation Without Borders: The PRC’s Use of Offshore Bases
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has set up a number of offshore innovation bases to acquire technologies in support of its ambitions for technological dominance and national rejuvenation. “Offshore innovation bases” in the PRC, mostly located in special high-tech development zones, collaborate... MORE
State Goals, Private Tools: Digital Sovereignty and Surveillance Along the Belt and Road
Executive Summary: Beijing promotes digital sovereignty in its engagements with other countries but with the caveat that it can maintain access to partner countries’ digital systems. Leaked documents from cyber contracting firm iS00N indicate a focus on One Belt One Road partner countries, targeting critical... MORE
PLA Steps up Security Cooperation With Russia in 2024
Executive Summary: This year’s second joint aerial patrol between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia marked the debut of the nuclear-capable H-6N bomber, demonstrating Beijing’s intent to project nuclear deterrence and challenge Western strategic dominance. The two countries have expanded security cooperation this... MORE
PLA Unveils New Unmanned Weapons Aimed at Taiwan at the Zhuhai Airshow
Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has been developing drone technology specifically for use in a Taiwan contingency, some of which was on display at the Zhuhai Airshow in November. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is framing the country’s rapid expansion of... MORE
‘Trusted Data Spaces’: Beijing’s Latest Step Toward Digital Dominance
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) plans to create over 100 “trusted data spaces” by 2028 as part of a strategy to dominate data governance internationally. The plan aims to break through current barriers obstructing the streamlining of data sharing and utilization and... MORE
Putin’s Insurmountable Preconditions for Talks With Trump On Ukraine
Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE
Georgia Faces Becoming a Pariah State to West
Executive Summary: The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement. Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for... MORE
Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations
Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of... MORE