Since the start of 2022, two unexpected “black swan” events have indirectly altered last year’s calculus regarding the expected evolution of the Belarusian political crisis. First, Belarus joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan on January 5, 2022. Second, Belarusian potassium... MORE

More than any other event since the Crimean annexation in 2014, the popular protests in Kazakhstan and the subsequent Russian-led intervention to suppress them have deeply troubled the countries of the former Soviet space. Many are now fearful that both the protests and their suppression... MORE

Diplomats naturally value dialogue; but when it comes to current relations with Moscow, the wisdom of such an approach looks dubious—particularly following the week of consecutive rounds of tough talks between Russia on the one hand and the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization... MORE

Emboldened by Moscow and Belgrade, Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serbs leader in Bosnia-Herzegovina, followed on his October announcement that Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) would start withdrawing from shared state institutions, including the army, judiciary, tax system and security services (RTV, December 10). On December 10,... MORE

Introduction After striking a deal to terminate the U.S.-European Union bilateral dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs, U.S. President Joseph Biden hailed the opportunity to curb imports of “dirty steel” from China (Straits Times, October 31). The U.S. and EU jointly agreed to support sustainable... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Recent statements by the United States—namely, the White House and the State Department—reveal the misunderstanding and/or improper use of the vocabulary related to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Biden administration is... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The Joseph Biden administration has recently learned the Russian MinskSpeak, chapter and verse. Following direct discussions with Moscow (see EDM, October 20, December 8, 9, 14), the White House and State Department have adopted key parts of Russia’s... MORE

Al-Qaeda’s Sahelian Affiliates Increases Attack Tempo in Mali, Burkina Faso and Benin Jacob Zenn The Sahelian al-Qaeda affiliate, Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), has not been attracting as many headlines as other historically al-Qaeda-aligned groups, such as the Taliban, in recent months.... MORE

On December 1, Ukrainian state-owned oil and natural gas major NAK Naftogaz joined the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance (ECH2A)—the pan-European industrial coalition promoting clean hydrogen (H2) investments (Naftogaz.com, December 1). The move should be seen as further confirmation of Ukraine’s willingness to export hydrogen to... MORE

According to Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from June 2020 to the end of July 2021, Polish consulates issued a total of 178,711 visas for Belarusians, of which 12,190 were so-called humanitarian visas, used by de facto political refugees. For comparison, during 2019, Poland issued... MORE