Belarus’s political crisis involves four principal actors. Two of them are domestic: the political regime, headed by President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and the protest movement, whose leaders are currently in Lithuanian, Polish and Latvian exile. Two more actors are external: Russia and the collective West. At... MORE

Since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in February–March 2014 and its subsequent involvement in destabilizing southeastern Ukraine, Russia’s Armed Forces frequently conduct force generation close to the border. In March, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered a snap inspection of combat readiness across Russia’s system of Joint... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. In addition to restarting joint air-patrol missions beginning this summer (see Part One), Belarus and Russia have agreed to establish three shared combat-training centers within the framework of the bilateral Strategic Partnership Program for 2021–2025 (BelTA, March 16).... MORE

The air forces of Russia and Belarus will begin joint air-defense missions out of one of the Belarusian airfields this summer. In reaching this agreement, Minsk and Moscow are resuming the practice of joint fighter jet patrols first started in 2013 but suspended two years... MORE

Moscow has announced it will begin drilling for fresh water under the Sea of Azov this summer to address growing water shortages in occupied Crimea, a project President Vladimir Putin called for, with surprisingly limited fanfare, at the end of last year (Aif.ru, May 4,... MORE

On March 30, 2021, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) adopted a new law on reservists, #1357-IX, which modifies existing legislation (Rada.gov.ua, March 30). The bill was initiated by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy back in May 2020, and he signed it into law a month after... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his closest entourage sometimes raise public expectations of what the United States can deliver to Ukraine to unrealistically high levels. Furthermore they tend to discount the close relationship between what the US is actually... MORE

The traditional May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow was not a grand affair this year, unlike the one originally planned for 2020, which had to be postponed and curtailed because of the severe aggravation of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rumble of tanks on Red... MORE

A German court sentenced on February 24 the alleged “Islamic State leader of Germany” to a lengthy prison sentence. The trial against Salafist preacher Ahmad Abdelaziz Abdullah Abdullah, better known as Abu Walaa, lasted three-and-a-half-years and provides insights into radicalization and Islamic State (IS) recruitment... MORE

Antony Blinken is visiting Kyiv today (May 6) on his first bilateral visit as US Secretary of State to a European country (Ukraiynska Pravda, May 6). This choice should have been foreordained in view of Ukraine’s pivotal significance to the power balance in Europe and... MORE