Iran’s approach to the three countries of the South Caucasus—Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia—is derivative of its concerns to keep its geopolitical opponents, the United States, Turkey and Israel, from being able to threaten the Islamic Republic from the north. At the same time, despite the... MORE

The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held in Sochi on October 23–24, was presented as an event of great geopolitical and geo-economic importance (see EDM, October 28), explicitly showcasing the competitive advantages Moscow is purportedly ready to employ in its struggle for influence on the... MORE

The ongoing protests in Baghdad and in the predominantly Shia areas of southern Iraq are unprecedented in both their scale and the degree of violence they were confronted with by the authorities. The Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militias and its umbrella organization, the Popular Mobilization Units... MORE

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Iran’s expanding presence in southwestern Syria has been apparent, building upon its material capabilities and networks. Aiding Tehran to this end has been various proxy groups, with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political and militant organization primarily based in... MORE

Bahrain Remains Powder Keg for Iranian Proxy Conflict Brian M. Perkins Iranian involvement in the most prominent conflicts in the Middle East—particularly in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon—has dominated international headlines over the past several years while overshadowing Tehran’s hand in the smoldering, low-intensity conflict in... MORE

Even by the standards of Syria’s complicated war, October 2019 was a tumultuous month. The contradictions inherent in the U.S. effort to conduct a counter-terrorism war against the Islamic State (IS) divorced from the realities of the underlying conflict erupted into view. Trump announced the... MORE

Russia’s Security Council (SC) secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, penned a policy article published on November 11, in the government-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The piece covers the Russian military, long-term (up to 2035) economic and political threat assessments, as well as issues related to strategic planning (Rossiyskaya Gazeta,... MORE

Executive Summary Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s long-game strategy has created international networks with the ultimate intention of creating a united Islamic Emirate to take the place of the lost Ottoman Caliphate, across a continuous band from Turkistan to the Atlantic coast. [1] Bruce Hoffman brought... MORE

Stability has always been the main promise legitimizing Vladimir Putin’s monopolization of political power in Russia. Restoration of stability was the winning slogan for Putin in 2012, in claiming the presidency back from his pliant stand-in, Dmitry Medvedev, who had tried to experiment with modernization.... MORE

Al-Qaeda Likely to Exploit Baghdadi’s Death Brian M. Perkins The death of Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is being hailed as a victory by al-Qaeda, which stands to benefit significantly from his death. While Baghdadi’s death is unlikely to see the collapse of... MORE