Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement is the most comprehensive among recent bilateral agreements with Kyiv. Like the others, however, it is not legally binding but rather a statement of intentions or a memorandum of understanding. The agreement conveys uncertainty regarding Washington’s resolve to fully... MORE

Executive Summary: The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the United States authorized Kyiv to use Western-provided weapons on Russian territory, Moscow has considered striking back on a new front by providing modern anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis (Ansarallah), who have been striking shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has reacted angrily to Japan’s agreement with the United States to set up a joint military command to counter Russian, Chinese, and North Korean moves. Russian commentators see this action as threatening Tokyo’s commitment not to use force offensively. This reaction builds... MORE

Executive Summary Armenia plans to replace its aging Soviet-era Metsamor nuclear reactor by 2036 and is currently engaged in talks with other countries, including Russia and the United States, to replace it. Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan announced that talks with the United States... MORE

Executive Summary: As new peace proposals are published, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not appear to be any closer to accepting negotiations with Ukraine to conduct a ceasefire or end the war. The European Union, except for Hungary, is showing stronger support for Ukraine, aiming... MORE

Executive Summary: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit did not unveil any particular strategy—let alone a winning one—to deal with Russia’s war against Ukraine, postponing any draft strategy until next year and stopping short of recognizing that Ukraine is the immediate arena of a... MORE

Executive Summary: NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration looks noncommittal and conditions-hedged regarding Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance. Member states believe that Ukraine’s accession would involve the alliance in a war with Russia so long as Moscow wages war against Ukraine. The alliance’s decision to designate... MORE