Executive Summary: The breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations in Istanbul highlights Moscow’s uncompromising demand to annex four Ukrainian regions. Despite lacking full control, Russia insists on its complete annexation, demonstrating its imperial pursuit of territorial expansion. Russia’s disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and international agreements signals... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s attacks on non-Russian nationalism are unintentionally having the opposite effect than the Kremlin intends by causing those attacked to dig in to defend themselves and prompting others to do the same lest they become victims. While some attacks on non-Russian communities are... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has released an embryonic Treaty of final settlement with Ukraine following their June 2 bilateral meeting in Istanbul. The territorial clauses require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s de jure annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian mainland provinces to the full extent... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is increasing the production and use of Shahed-type kamikaze drones against Ukraine, constantly improving their effectiveness and ability to break through air defenses. In addition to simpler drones, Moscow is developing and testing more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring artificial intelligence... MORE

Russia’s strategy for challenging the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid-warfare doctrine that combines conventional military maneuvers in Ukraine with covert, disruptive operations across Europe’s frontlines. Moscow seeks to probe defenses, exploit ambiguity, and sow discord among allies. These campaigns... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: The deepening drought in southern Russia is threatening the region and its food production, as well as Moscow’s relationship with neighboring states harmed by the reduced flow of the Volga River into the Caspian Sea. Southern Russia’s drought is having a serious negative... MORE

Executive Summary: The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including... MORE

Executive Summary: Gunpowder production in Russia nearly doubled from 2022 to 2024 due to increased imports and domestic manufacturing of cotton cellulose nitrate. This rise suggests a potential doubling in artillery shell output during the same period. Russia remains dependent on imported raw materials, particularly... MORE