Executive Summary: Water shortages in Central Asia are becoming a problem for Russia as the drought and its effects spread into Russian territories, and Central Asians call for Moscow to send water from Siberian rivers or face massive immigration. Russians overwhelmingly oppose the revival of... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Cossack Society (VsKO) drafted an agreement in June that would formally establish a Cossack mobilization reserve. Cossack forces are already active in Russia’s Combat Army Reserve (BARS) system, with about 25,000 Cossacks in 18 battalions.... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: As Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to reimpose totalitarianism on Russia, the Federal Security Service (FSB) increasingly mirrors its Soviet predecessors, including rebuilding a network of camps some are calling “Gulag 2.0,” among other ways. The quiet revival of these other functions... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a set of measures in May to support Russia’s coal industry, including subsidies for transportation and exports, aimed at addressing the challenges posed by shrinking global demand, the transition to renewable energy, and economic sanctions. More than half... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appointment of Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev as Commander in Chief of Russia’s Ground Forces highlights tensions in the Kremlin’s political-military leadership while sidelining critics of notorious Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. The concurrent sentencing of popular... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE

Executive Summary: Following Ukraine’s successful “Operation Spiderweb” strike on Russian airfields on June 1, the Kremlin dropped its pretense of seriously pursuing peace talks, ramping up retaliatory strikes in Kyiv, Odesa, and other cities. The Kremlin is counting on its summer offensive to achieve Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: Corruption in Russia worsens the longer the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine continues because the war creates expanded opportunities for bribery and the state seizure and misallocation of assets. The Kremlin has generally sought to downplay the growth of corruption to conceal how the... MORE