(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian analysts have redefined Arctic dynamics within the framework of a global hybrid war, viewing the region as a contested space of economic, military, and cyber confrontation with the West. Moscow now conceptualizes Arctic competition through five “circles,” ranging from Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is facing greater resistance to its military draft in the North Caucasus because of increasing quotas and the disproportionate impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine on the region. The Russian government is applying more repressive pressure on North Caucasians... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to what Moscow labels the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s militarization of the Arctic, Russia has significantly restructured its Arctic policies. Russia has expanded the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and enacted symbolic legislative and institutional changes to cement federal control... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is warming 2.7 times faster than the global average due to positive feedback loops resulting from Russia’s distinct geography, with alarming consequences for Arctic infrastructure and regional ecosystems. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have shifted from skepticism about climate change... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine are making and sending home video protests to their local governments about a wide variety of issues, boosting the profile of opposition causes. Video protests from soldiers are increasing because commanders are unwilling to spark more anger in... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has made knowledge and use of the Russian language central to his understanding of Russian identity, the basis of links between the Russian population and his regime, and a key part of his foreign policy. Putin has also declared... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus has announced a significant downsizing and relocation of the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises with Russia in an apparent effort to reduce tensions with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The reduced scale of the exercises brings them below international thresholds that require... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russians are claiming on social networks that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) failed to anticipate and block Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web attacks because it is preoccupied with suppressing LGBT+ groups and individuals instead of working to neutralize military threats. This criticism... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility. Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating... MORE