Executive Summary: In the spring, Russia reported the discovery of an enormous new oil field in Antarctica.  Moscow told Western governments it had no plans to develop the field, even as Western observers warned that exploitation of the new deposits could threaten the Antarctic treaty... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, India and Russia have significantly expanded their military and defense cooperation, with New Delhi launching the first of two Russian-supplied advanced stealth frigates for the Indian Navy at the end of July. As Moscow struggles with defense exports due to... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the United States authorized Kyiv to use Western-provided weapons on Russian territory, Moscow has considered striking back on a new front by providing modern anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis (Ansarallah), who have been striking shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and even more since he launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has sought to develop ties with non-Russian groups in Russia on the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is... MORE

Executive Summary: In recent weeks, Russia has suffered significant personnel losses on the Ukrainian front and in Africa, which may influence the number of those willing to sign a military contract with the Ministry of Defense. Despite official declarations about the increasing number of contract... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran. The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening... MORE

Executive Summary: A new, more radical, and more deadly threat to Russian control in the North Caucasus is emerging. The new movement is based on Islamist ideas rather than concerns about ethnic hierarchies or anger about corruption and situated primarily in Dagestan rather than Chechnya.... MORE

Executive Summary: Twenty-three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)member states have undertaken bilateral security commitments to Ukraine. The ten-year agreements operate under the umbrella of a Ukraine Compact, outside NATO’s framework, and postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership in deference to Russia. The assistance offers are potentially massive... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has... MORE