Executive Summary: Russia faces a severe economic crisis, with inflation rates significantly exceeding official figures. Efforts to combat inflation through high interest rates have slowed economic growth and investment, leading to risks of an economic downturn. The Kremlin is prioritizing war funding at the expense... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has expanded its ties with groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, leveraging its relationship with Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” to increase geopolitical influence through military and security cooperation, including supplying weapons and conducting diplomatic engagements. Moscow is not pursuing... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Kremlin formally approved a new nuclear doctrine on November 19, following the West’s authorization for Ukraine to utilize its deep strike capabilities on Russian territory. The revised document is directed at Western powers and aims to address the potential escalation... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has more icebreakers than any other country but far fewer than it needs to ensure passage in the Eastern portions of the Northern Sea Route critical to its trade with China as well as to ensure that the Russian navy can continue... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is heavily investing in domestic technologies like deep packet inspection and VPN-blocking algorithms to block 96 percent of civilian virtual private network (VPN) traffic by 2030, advancing its “Sovereign Internet” initiative for stricter internet control. The government is developing a centralized platform... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary Russia remains the dominant player in the Arctic icebreaker sector, but this advantage may face challenges in the coming decade due to the collaborative ICE Pact involving the United States, Canada, and Finland. For Russia, icebreakers are essential for accessing Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia announced the new Project 22220 Chukotka nuclear icebreaker in early November, which is part of a new generation of icebreakers crucial for transforming the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic into a globally competitive transportation artery. Moscow sees the Arctic as a... MORE

Executive Summary: As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to escalatory steps aimed at undermining Ukraine’s will to resist and weakening Western resolve to confront Russian aggression. The change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deployment of North... MORE

Executive Summary: Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions. These moves are negatively impacting the Russian economy and forcing Moscow to seek... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russian territory. Russia’s strike against Ukraine, coinciding... MORE