Russia’s strategy for challenging the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid-warfare doctrine that combines conventional military maneuvers in Ukraine with covert, disruptive operations across Europe’s frontlines. Moscow seeks to probe defenses, exploit ambiguity, and sow discord among allies. These campaigns... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: The deepening drought in southern Russia is threatening the region and its food production, as well as Moscow’s relationship with neighboring states harmed by the reduced flow of the Volga River into the Caspian Sea. Southern Russia’s drought is having a serious negative... MORE

Executive Summary: The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including... MORE

Executive Summary: Gunpowder production in Russia nearly doubled from 2022 to 2024 due to increased imports and domestic manufacturing of cotton cellulose nitrate. This rise suggests a potential doubling in artillery shell output during the same period. Russia remains dependent on imported raw materials, particularly... MORE

Russian Opposition and Russian Resistance: The Landscape Before the Battle for Power, by Ilya Ponomarev, the Chairman of the Congress of People’s Deputies of the Russian Republic, is the first article in a series of analyses as part of “Promethean Liberation: Russia’s Emerging National and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Knyaz Pozharsky, Russia’s newest Borei-A class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, is slated to join the Northern Fleet in June 2025. Moscow presents the Borei-A submarine class as one of the most advanced in terms of design and capabilities, making it the basis... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian government is significantly boosting the visibility and funding of the Cossacks, as seen in budget increases, high-profile national gatherings, and cultural exhibitions linking them to the Soviet victory in World War II. The All-Russian Cossack Society has increased its media activity,... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced on May 12 that it will close Russia’s consulate in Krakow after attributing the May 2024 Warsaw shopping center fire to Russian security services, as one of only seven North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to shut down Russian consulates.  Moscow... MORE