Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations unrealistic. The degradation of the Russian economy and growing discontent at home casts doubts on... MORE

Executive Summary: The new law granting Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka life-long immunity was necessary to avoid future political retribution that could destabilize Belarus. Western misconceptions of official Minsk’s actions greatly hamper any chances of reversing Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Russia. Positive change in Belarus... MORE

Executive summary: The Kremlin views Serbia as a strategic asset in the Balkans that expands Russia’s geopolitical reach, weakens Western cohesion, and undermines transatlantic institutions. The Serbian government benefits from its alliance with Moscow by having an advocate on the UN Security Council to block... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian veterans returning from Ukraine have caused violent crime rates to skyrocket even more dramatically than veterans of the Afghan and Chechen wars. The Kremlin’s own policies of recruiting soldiers along ethnic lines and leniently handling veterans who do commit crimes are compounding... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russian regional governors have established new headquarters to prevent separatism, nationalism, extremism, and mass riots. The creation of these headquarters raises doubts about the Kremlin’s confidence in public support for the war against Ukraine and Moscow’s imperial policies. Repression against Russian regionalists... MORE

Executive Summary: Kazakhstan recently removed the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations, signifying a shift in Central Asia’s engagement with Kabul. The Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have expanded their cooperation with the Taliban on trade, transit, and energy matters. Astana... MORE

Executive Summary: Western sanctions have severely hurt Kaliningrad’s economy, particularly for cross-border transit, tourism, and fishing. The Kremlin has allocated increased subsidies to the region raising questions regarding the sustainability of Kaliningrad’s growing reliance on Moscow for economic aid. The region’s economy remains highly vulnerable... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent “almost naked” party of Russian celebrities has led to a new wave of government repression and widespread public discontent. Moscow’s media campaign against the partiers aimed to strengthen support for the war in Ukraine and demonstrate “solidarity with the people” by... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s recent successes at sea have pushed Moscow to consider relocating its vessels to a planned naval base in the Russian-controlled Republic of Abkhazia in Georgia. Ukrainian attacks have effectively pushed the Russian Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, opening the possibility of... MORE

Since becoming ataman of the Cossacks in November 2023, Vitaly Kuznetsov has charted a new direction for the state-registered movement that replicates the Wagner Group model in some ways. In a December interview, Kuznetsov made clear that one of his main tasks is the unification... MORE