Executive Summary: The Kremlin is trying to impede any Western resolve in allowing long-distance Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia to avoid destabilizing energy infrastructure and disrupting the lives of everyday Russians. Moscow uses the fear of escalation and nuclear saber-rattling to inflame worries... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE

Executive Summary: The head of Russian state-owned military-industrial corporation Rostec released the company’s 2023 annual corporate report, providing insights into the state of the Russian military-industrial complex. There is no sign of an “arms manufacturing miracle” in Russia despite Russian officials’ attempts to argue that... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian politics are divided into two factions: the Lukashenka regime, with strong ties to Russia, located within Belarus, and the opposition, whose members are largely in exile. The Lukashenka regime continues to rely on Russia economically but has worked to increase trade cooperation... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s preconditions for halting its war in Ukraine are still those from the spring of 2022, never agreed to by Kyiv, plus acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains since then. The terms of the Russian-designed treaty on Ukraine’s neutrality and security, recently exposed,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has released a series of “leaks” implying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to freeze hostilities in his war against Ukraine. The release likely occurred now as an attempt to derail preparations for the coming Ukraine peace summit this summer... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is currently purging numerous military officers and MoD officials in an alleged “anti-corruption” campaign. The political motivation for these attacks is unclear, though this could be an effort to find scapegoats responsible for Russia’s troubles in the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE