Executive Summary: Central Asians have long called for Russia to divert water from Siberian rivers to help them address water shortages, which are a result of rising demand and global warming. These calls have been rebuffed because Russians have feared that it would harm their... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White House has agreed to “help” Russia mitigate certain Western sanctions—including U.S. ones—that affect Russian agricultural exports. Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea. Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic planning and operational doctrine. In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has... MORE

Executive Summary: Consultations among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are dealing piecemeal with narrow aspects of a putative ceasefire. Moscow stonewalls the quick, comprehensive ceasefire that the Trump administration pursues. A maritime ceasefire (moratorium on firing at sea) could result in banning Ukrainian naval... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian information security companies are expanding their operations in Russia’s near abroad despite facing limitations caused by Western sanctions, as other states increasingly view internet freedom as a threat to their sovereignty.  Russian contractors are also working alongside the Kremlin to draw on... MORE

Executive Summary: When an Azerbaijani airliner was shot down over Russian territory last December, chilled relations between Baku and Moscow caused some analysts to expect a collapse in ties and attempts by  Moscow to regain its former influence. Neither outcome is likely. Azerbaijani-Russian relations are... MORE

Executive Summary: On February 3, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeted paramilitary leader Armen Sarkisian in Moscow, illustrating Ukraine’s strategy to actualize the war for the removed Russians. Through assassinations, the operation into Kursk oblast, and drone warfare, Ukraine alarmed everyday citizens who until... MORE

Executive Summary: The new Abkhaz de facto leadership is staunchly pro-Russia, and Moscow hopes that a new leader will eventually pass through the long-expected legislation on foreign investments in Abkhazia. Russia has expanded support for Abkhazia, using aid, infrastructure projects, and political backing despite economic... MORE

Executive Summary: Ingushetia, a republic in Russia’s North Caucasus, is being pacified and kept dependent on Moscow as intentional Kremlin policies, rather than policy failures or Ingush shortcomings, are causing high unemployment.   Moscow has often used Ingushetia to test out policies and if it concludes... MORE