Executive Summary:  South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova. The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding to maintain influence over Moldovan politics. Encouraging Gagauzia to demand upgrades in its autonomy is... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian private military company (PMC) Española grew out of a subculture of soccer hooliganism in Russia. Española’s connection to soccer has important implications for using sports to recruit private soldiers for Russia’s war against Ukraine—a trend that has shown signs of spreading... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile... MORE

Executive Summary: Fears that Russia will interfere in Georgia’s October 2024 parliamentary election are increasing following the appointment of a new pro-Kremlin special representative of the Georgian prime minister who oversees relations with Russia. In recent years, the ruling elite of Georgia have been using informal... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia’s recent presidential “elections” are likely to mark a turning point in President Vladimir Putin’s behavior at home, abroad, and toward those Russians who oppose him. While optimists may hope he will use his unchallenged power to make peace and reduce repression, many... MORE

Executive Summary: Berlin and Astana have been working to increase oil exports from Kazakhstan since the end of 2022 after Western sanctions forced Germany to explore alternatives to Russian energy sources. Increasing Kazakh oil exports seems unlikely as shipments would pass through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is looking to Latin America to send Soviet-era and Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for modern American-made analogs. Many Latin American countries are hesitant to agree to this request because they do not want to break their treaties with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE