Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. It is based on three premises: economic performance will keep the war machine going; Western support for Ukraine will erode and contract; and... MORE

*Read Part One. On September 20, Azerbaijan called for a ceasefire in the operation against armed detachments of the separatist regime in Karabakh (Trend.az, September 20). In a televised address to the nation, President Ilham Aliyev stated that Baku’s conditions were accepted by the separatist... MORE

On September 26, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev announced that the Russian Armed Forces have recruited more than 325,000 contracted soldiers since January 1. Based on earlier declarations, the Ministry of Defense is trying to hit the target of 521,000 contracted... MORE

Moscow has long declared that China’s role in the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a central part of their strategic cooperation (see EDM, July 23, 2020; March 28). Despite this, the Kremlin cannot be entirely comfortable with the recent extent of Beijing’s... MORE

On September 15, the European Commission decided not to extend the ban on imports of certain grain exports from Ukraine. The ban was imposed after five European Union member states—Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia—effectively pressured Brussels to impose it, fearing destabilization of their domestic... MORE

In 2022, the Day of National Unity was added to Belarus’s calendar as a new official holiday (see EDM, September 28, 2022). It is celebrated on September 17, the same day the Soviet Red Army entered Poland in 1939. Soviet Belarus more than doubled in... MORE

Russian President Vladimir Putin has struggled to maintain control over religious radicals and other aggressive advocates of his war against Ukraine, though his political ideology and worldview do not significantly differ from their own (see EDM, August 17). Conversely, these same radicals, recognizing the Kremlin’s... MORE

*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. *Read Part Three. On September 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced a breakthrough in Russian defenses around Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region (Ukrainska Pravda, September 23). This represents a significant moment for Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which has only made incremental... MORE

Nansen passports may soon be making a comeback as a means of coping with the possibility that thousands of Belarusians and potentially tens of thousands of Russians will be left without statehood due to actions by their governments and their flight abroad (Nezavisimaya gazeta, March... MORE

Russia has turned much of the Black Sea into a buffer zone against Western powers and, simultaneously, a power projection platform against Ukraine. Acting from seemingly impregnable positions in the Black Sea basin, Russia uses its air power to support its land war against Ukraine—in... MORE