Executive Summary: Russia passed legislation creating a Cossack “mobilization reserve,” a reflection of Moscow’s broader efforts to use the state-registered Cossack movement as a recruitment tool for the war in Ukraine. The Cossacks loyal to the Kremlin are playing an increasingly active role in Russia’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia announced in early April that nearly all domestic financial transactions are now being conducted through the Financial Transaction System, which was created as an alternative to SWIFT. The development of new financial systems is part of a broader desire for greater independence... MORE

Executive Summary: The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a political signal to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost member states and a practical preparation for nuclear escalation. Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory suggests that the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces. Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev says the influx of immigrants threatens Russia’s social and political stability and, if allowed to continue, could call the country’s territorial integrity into question. Patrushev’s words are stoking xenophobic attitudes in Russia, powering a push for tighter... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) newly published data on the military-industrial complex in Q1 2024 demonstrates limitations for arms production. The increase in some manufactured goods is in part due to Russia evading sanctions to continue importing electronic devices, demonstrating its dependence on... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of corruption, surprising Russians who have not seen a large-scale corruption charge since the start of the war in Ukraine. The arrest may have been meant as a warning from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is maneuvering to avoid being dragged directly into the hostilities in Ukraine, which has become Minsk’s main strategy since allowing Russian forces to launch the expanded invasion from Belarusian territory. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated: “Can we do it? No, we cannot”... MORE

Executive Summary: Leaders of Moldova’s Russophile parties recently launched a new political bloc at a congress in Moscow, heavily covered by Russian state media. The Kremlin aims to replace Moldova’s Western-oriented leadership with one loyal to Russia, ruling out the former model of Moldova balancing... MORE