Executive Summary: Russia is warming 2.7 times faster than the global average due to positive feedback loops resulting from Russia’s distinct geography, with alarming consequences for Arctic infrastructure and regional ecosystems. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have shifted from skepticism about climate change... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine are making and sending home video protests to their local governments about a wide variety of issues, boosting the profile of opposition causes. Video protests from soldiers are increasing because commanders are unwilling to spark more anger in... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has made knowledge and use of the Russian language central to his understanding of Russian identity, the basis of links between the Russian population and his regime, and a key part of his foreign policy. Putin has also declared... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus has announced a significant downsizing and relocation of the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises with Russia in an apparent effort to reduce tensions with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The reduced scale of the exercises brings them below international thresholds that require... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russians are claiming on social networks that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) failed to anticipate and block Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web attacks because it is preoccupied with suppressing LGBT+ groups and individuals instead of working to neutralize military threats. This criticism... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility. Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating... MORE

Executive Summary:  Ukraine’s June 1 strike on four Russian airbases exposed severe vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defenses, prompting patriotic outcries and demands for retaliation despite censorship and subdued official responses. Russia’s retaliatory strike on June 6, while labeled as retribution, matched previous attack intensities and... MORE

Executive Summary: The breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations in Istanbul highlights Moscow’s uncompromising demand to annex four Ukrainian regions. Despite lacking full control, Russia insists on its complete annexation, demonstrating its imperial pursuit of territorial expansion. Russia’s disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and international agreements signals... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s attacks on non-Russian nationalism are unintentionally having the opposite effect than the Kremlin intends by causing those attacked to dig in to defend themselves and prompting others to do the same lest they become victims. While some attacks on non-Russian communities are... MORE