Executive Summary: Consultations among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are dealing piecemeal with narrow aspects of a putative ceasefire. Moscow stonewalls the quick, comprehensive ceasefire that the Trump administration pursues. A maritime ceasefire (moratorium on firing at sea) could result in banning Ukrainian naval... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian information security companies are expanding their operations in Russia’s near abroad despite facing limitations caused by Western sanctions, as other states increasingly view internet freedom as a threat to their sovereignty.  Russian contractors are also working alongside the Kremlin to draw on... MORE

Executive Summary: When an Azerbaijani airliner was shot down over Russian territory last December, chilled relations between Baku and Moscow caused some analysts to expect a collapse in ties and attempts by  Moscow to regain its former influence. Neither outcome is likely. Azerbaijani-Russian relations are... MORE

Executive Summary: On February 3, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeted paramilitary leader Armen Sarkisian in Moscow, illustrating Ukraine’s strategy to actualize the war for the removed Russians. Through assassinations, the operation into Kursk oblast, and drone warfare, Ukraine alarmed everyday citizens who until... MORE

Executive Summary: The new Abkhaz de facto leadership is staunchly pro-Russia, and Moscow hopes that a new leader will eventually pass through the long-expected legislation on foreign investments in Abkhazia. Russia has expanded support for Abkhazia, using aid, infrastructure projects, and political backing despite economic... MORE

Executive Summary: Ingushetia, a republic in Russia’s North Caucasus, is being pacified and kept dependent on Moscow as intentional Kremlin policies, rather than policy failures or Ingush shortcomings, are causing high unemployment.   Moscow has often used Ingushetia to test out policies and if it concludes... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is experiencing energy shortages and electricity generation problems exacerbated by its war against Ukraine, sanctions, and cryptocurrency mining. Russia’s electricity exports to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) significantly dropped in 2024 due to energy deficits in the Far East, and these... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is attempting to signal its leadership of Arctic affairs with the sixth meeting of the International Arctic Forum (IAF) on March 26–27.  As Russia continues its war against Ukraine, the planned IAF program reflects Moscow’s isolation from most international Arctic partnerships, while... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the wide-ranging Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on January 17 to boost bilateral relations for further progress in areas including opposition to NATO expansion, the North-South Corridor, and the 3+3 format. Moscow and... MORE