*Read Part One. Russia has turned much of the Black Sea into another theater of protracted conflict, adding a sizeable maritime dimension to the land dimension. This conflict at sea reproduces some key features of the preexisting, Russian-initiated protracted conflicts on land around the Black... MORE

On July 17, Russia unilaterally suspended the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (“grain deal”), the year-old arrangement that has allowed Ukraine to export grain—albeit under Russian-imposed conditions—from the three ports in and near Odesa. The Kremlin and its navy had (until now) only... MORE

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has long accepted the sobriquet of “dictator.” In fact, he loves to characterize himself in that way. Recently, during his July 1 address to the nation, he boasted of many influential Westerners “suddenly calling a dictator” on account of plans to... MORE

Following Ukraine’s successful Kherson counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, the war in Ukraine has moved into the Materialschlacht, or war of attrition phase, which is rapidly depleting critical resources. Typically, when discussing resources in this sense, Ukraine is most often referring to the tanks,... MORE

On July 19, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Crimea. Later, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence Unit of Ukraine, confirmed the strike, calling it a “successful operation.” In his comments, he also thanked the... MORE

Conflicts continue to mount among the various “Kremlin towers,” and lately a curious trend has become discernible: Those methods previously used by the Russian authorities against dissidents have begun to turn against their creators. Thus, in mid-July 2023, former Federal Security Service (FSB) colonel and... MORE

From the beginning of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine, Moscow, the West and Ukraine have viewed the conflict primarily as a land war rather than a naval contest. But as Ukrainian, Western and Russian analysts are increasingly pointing out, from the beginning,... MORE

*Read Part One. On June 23 and 24, the notorious Wagner Group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin conducted an unsuccessful revolt against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its ultimatum that Wagner, and other entities like it, had to sign a contract (by July... MORE

Since June 2023, Russia has lost two generals during the fighting in Ukraine: Major General Sergei Goryachev, chief of staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, and Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, commander of 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division and deputy commander of the Southern Military... MORE

The decision to withdraw from the international arrangement guaranteeing the safety of grain exports from Ukrainian ports, announced in Moscow on July 17, signifies a significant effort to escalate non-kinetic hostilities to break the pattern of slow-moving defeat in this war of attrition. Russian President... MORE