Executive Summary: On October 6, Uzbekistan signed a 25-year, $100 million-per-year contract with Afghanistan to explore and develop Afghan oil and gas resources, expanding economic cooperation and processing extracted gas in Uzbekistan for mutual benefit. Kabul and Tashkent have strengthened energy ties through major infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary Paresh Baruah, the long-time leader of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), remains at large in Myanmar and along the China border, sustaining a weakened but still symbolically potent Assamese separatist movement through criminal networks and transnational alliances. Though ULFA-I’s operational capacity... MORE

The BLA has become South Asia’s most capable active insurgent group, with growing manpower, sophisticated attacks, and strong social legitimacy among alienated Baloch youth. Pakistan’s security-first approach and new counterterrorism laws are fueling—not containing—the insurgency, pushing more Baloch toward militancy and entrenching anti-state resentment. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan’s plans to build infrastructure facilities at the Iranian Chabahar port to gain direct access to the Indian Ocean have not been implemented, indicating Tashkent’s possibly cautious approach to this issue. New Delhi is strengthening its economic ties with Russia and the People’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Özgür Altun, a Turkish national and leading propagandist for IS–KP, was arrested in Pakistan after years of orchestrating the group’s online media, recruitment, and logistics networks. His detention marks a major setback for IS–KP’s transnational communications and recruitment efforts across Turkey, Central Asia,... MORE

Executive Summary: The U.S. designation of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and its Majeed Brigade as Foreign Terrorist Organizations on August 11 marks a major shift in international recognition of the Baloch insurgency as a threat. The blacklisting isolates the BLA internationally and reflects eroded... MORE

Executive Summary: Mullah Abdul Haq Wasiq, Taliban intelligence chief and former Guantanamo detainee, has become central to Afghanistan’s internal security and counter–Islamic State efforts. Once tied to al-Qaeda, Wasiq now engages in high-level talks with the CIA, including negotiations over detained Americans and coordination against... MORE

Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB) has taken advantage of weak interim governance to openly campaign for its legalization, as well as stage protests and recruit among students, professionals, and elements of... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE