Executive Summary: Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state,... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, China and Russia held a joint Arctic naval exercise, North-Joint 2024, reflecting their deepening security relationship centered on countering Western influence and reinforcing each other in strategic regions. The exercise underscores Russia and China’s shared strategic and economic interests in securing... MORE

Executive Summary: As Western sanctions increasingly isolate Russia, it has become highly dependent on China for trade and economic support, particularly in energy exports sold at discounted prices. China has capitalized on Russia’s isolation by expanding its investments and economic influence within Russia, with Chinese... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow announced that it plans to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations to normalize relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government to combat terrorism in the region. Russia sees the Taliban as its best partner to counter the threat from the Islamic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission,... MORE

Executive Summary: Cooperation between Iran and Russia has improved incrementally since 2022, especially in the military sphere. The two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement toward the end of this year.  Moscow and Tehran have faced challenges due to Western sanctions and... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus seeks closer ties with BRICS and aims to become a full member, seeing the organization as a means to support a multipolar world and reduce its dependency on Moscow. While BRICS is not currently expanding its membership, it has introduced a new... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced plans to build fortifications on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad oblast and Belarus, with construction of the “Eastern Shield” defensive line to be completed by 2028. Poland is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) top military spender by percent of its... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is  increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it... MORE