Executive Summary: On January 1, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, emphasizing the need to strengthen European security to deter Russian aggression. The Visegrád Four Group, a multi-national format to bolster Central European solidarity and security, has become redundant,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement. Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE

Executive Summary: This year’s second joint aerial patrol between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia marked the debut of the nuclear-capable H-6N bomber, demonstrating Beijing’s intent to project nuclear deterrence and challenge Western strategic dominance. The two countries have expanded security cooperation this... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO in exchange for “peace” with Russia. Some NATO states are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide... MORE

Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE

Executive Summary: A joint meeting of the Foreign Ministry Collegiums of Russia and Belarus occurred on November 22, emphasizing deepening Belarus-Russia cooperation under the Union State framework, with new agreements on joint security and coordinated foreign policy. Russia extended its nuclear doctrine to cover Belarus,... MORE

Executive Summary:  President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have begun familiarizing the incoming US administration of Donald Trump with Moscow’s terms and conditions for a political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Kremlin has noted Trump’s eagerness for a “deal” and expects to... MORE