Executive Summary: As veterans from Moscow’s war in Ukraine return to Russia and are lauded as the “new elite,” crime rates are drastically increasing, creating a surge in violence across Russian society. The Kremlin’s loss of the monopoly on violence, combined with reduced numbers of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war in Ukraine continues to cause tremendous casualties, rapidly depleting Russia’s supply of manpower.  Despite stable... MORE

Executive Summary: Bidzina Ivanishvili, the informal leader of Georgia, made a recent statement promising an apology to puppet regime of so-called South Ossetia controlled by Russiafor the war in 2008, placing the blame for Russia’s war on Georgia itself. The Georgian opposition and general public... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has rapidly turned into a war of attrition. Along with Moscow’s difficulties raising an army and adequately equipping it, Russia is running out of the resource reserves left over from Soviet times. Senior Russian officials are... MORE

Executive Summary: Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth. Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved... MORE

Executive Summary: Despite fear of punishment for voicing opposition and the Kremlin’s aggressive propaganda, public support for its war in Ukraine has waned, especially as those returning from the front expose the reality of the conflict. Research indicates that Russians increasingly prioritize regional issues over... MORE

Executive Summary: As the new school year begins in Russia, the Kremlin is restructuring the curriculum to be more patriotic, teaching school children about “what is important,” including the “Fundamentals of Religious Culture” and military training. Due in part to limited access to technology and... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream has proposed that if it wins the upcoming elections, it would declare Orthodox Christianity as the state religion in Georgia. The move looks to gain the support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the most influential institutions in... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing pushes an inaccurate narrative in Kyrgyz media, overstating the positive impact of its investment in and development aid to Kyrgyzstan and claiming that this makes it a trustworthy neighbor, according to analysis of thousands of local media sources. A survey of 1,000... MORE

Executive Summary: In April 2024, the authors surveyed 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University—the PRC’s two preeminent institutions—about their views on the risks of artificial intelligence (AI). The key findings are as follows: Students are more optimistic about the benefits... MORE