Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Russian population overwhelmingly supports the war against Ukraine in the face of an “external enemy.” The potential for protest, however, is growing due to how the war has increasingly disrupted Russians’ everyday lives. Regional protests have yet to... MORE

Executive Summary: In the lead-up to the October parliamentary elections in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party is campaigning to obtain a “constitutional majority” despite showing concern about the possibility of losing power amid decreasing approval ratings. The pro-Western opposition in Georgia is fragmented... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military in Ukraine is suffering from various signs of degradation. The longer the war goes on, the more these trends are likely to intensify, threatening Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations and maintain order at home. The battlefield degradation is seeping... MORE

Executive Summary: New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Resolution from the Third Plenum focused primarily on economic reform but reinforced the Party’s existing strategy rather than announcing a change in overall direction. The Resolution does nothing to mitigate concerns about the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, subsidized export-oriented manufacturing,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka celebrated the 30th anniversary of his rule on July 10, highlighting his enduring influence in Belarusian politics as the country’s only president since independence. Lukashenka’s power relies on pro-Russian support against pro-European factions, which he claims necessitates authoritarian control.... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping has solidified his position as the driving force behind achieving a “high-quality socialist market economy” by 2029. The recent CCP Central Committee Plenum indicated that he would rule until at least 2032. The Third Plenary... MORE

Executive Summary: The series of brutal Russian strikes against Ukraine, especially on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, have raised the stakes of Moscow’s war before a possible start of a negotiation process, creating a precedent of brutality Russia must uphold to maintain the initiative.  These strikes have... MORE

Executive Summary: This month marks 30 years since Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power. In the coming months, a new presidential campaign will begin, leaving many questioning whether he will run again due to his age and overall health. Possible regime change and democratic... MORE

Executive Summary: As part of Belarus’s Independence Day festivities, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented an amnesty plan to release thousands of convicts and political prisoners. He also introduced a series of personnel changes that may provide an opening for future rapprochement with the West. Two main... MORE