Executive Summary: Mass protests in Bashkortostan featured calls for the independence of the Middle Volga republic and have shattered the image that Russia is united behind Putin. These events have convinced Bashkirs and other non-Russians that their time is coming, and Kyiv believes that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Economic decline and growing security threats limit the effectiveness of Kremlin propagandists’ claims of a “bright future” for a “new Russia.” Moscow has been unable to adequately provide for public security, as Ukraine strikes Russian territory with increased frequency and returning veterans of... MORE

Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations unrealistic. The degradation of the Russian economy and growing discontent at home casts doubts on... MORE

Executive Summary: The new law granting Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka life-long immunity was necessary to avoid future political retribution that could destabilize Belarus. Western misconceptions of official Minsk’s actions greatly hamper any chances of reversing Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Russia. Positive change in Belarus... MORE

Executive summary: The Kremlin views Serbia as a strategic asset in the Balkans that expands Russia’s geopolitical reach, weakens Western cohesion, and undermines transatlantic institutions. The Serbian government benefits from its alliance with Moscow by having an advocate on the UN Security Council to block... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian veterans returning from Ukraine have caused violent crime rates to skyrocket even more dramatically than veterans of the Afghan and Chechen wars. The Kremlin’s own policies of recruiting soldiers along ethnic lines and leniently handling veterans who do commit crimes are compounding... MORE

Executive Summary The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently approved 37 genetically modified (GM) corn varieties and 14 GM soybean varieties after a three-year trial, marking the first such announcement by the PRC government. The PRC's focus on improving food security is evident... MORE

Executive Summary Xi Jinping addressed the perennial dilemma of corruption within the CCP, pronouncing “victory” in a decade of anti-corruption efforts but simultaneously warning that the situation remains “grim and complex.” In the short term, anti-corruption crackdowns are expected to continue, with Xi targeting sectors... MORE

Executive Summary: Some Russian regional governors have established new headquarters to prevent separatism, nationalism, extremism, and mass riots. The creation of these headquarters raises doubts about the Kremlin’s confidence in public support for the war against Ukraine and Moscow’s imperial policies. Repression against Russian regionalists... MORE

Executive Summary: The recent election of Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili as honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream party has set off speculation about what his return to Georgian politics means for the country. Members of the ruling party claim that Ivanishvili felt the need to... MORE