Executive Summary: Russia suffered one of the worst terrorist attacks in its history on March 22 when a group of Islamist terrorists attacked Crocus City Hall in Moscow, but the Putin regime’s response appears even more worrisome. Putin has deepened the divide between Moscow and... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Movement of the First, a successor to the Soviet Pioneers, is growing, indicating the potential for a more radicalized, militarized Russian future. The Kremlin-sponsored organization is ostensibly designed to promote creative work and life in Russia, but its actions suggest that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declarations regarding Poland once again demonstrate that the Kremlin is trying to create and strengthen contradictions between its geopolitical enemies. Moscow has a similar policy regarding other Western countries, and Kremlin analysts do not conceal the fact that Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Cracks in the Kremlin’s infrastructure are appearing following the Russian Presidential Election last week, exposing fragilities in the seemingly solid system of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power. The deadlock in the high-intensity battles in Ukraine has led to worrisome developments in many aspects... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creations of a new army corps, motor rifle division, and Dnipro River flotilla, along with the establishment of 30 large unspecified units. Moscow’s manpower resources and the size of the officer corps remain limited, and these... MORE

Executive Summary: The political rigidity associated with Western reactions to Minsk has limited any positive impact and is now sacrificing the “strategic foundation of Belarus’s statehood” on the altar of “present-day concerns.” Official Minsk has limited economic options due to Western sanctions, leading to a... MORE

Executive Summary: Fears that Russia will interfere in Georgia’s October 2024 parliamentary election are increasing following the appointment of a new pro-Kremlin special representative of the Georgian prime minister who oversees relations with Russia. In recent years, the ruling elite of Georgia have been using informal... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia’s recent presidential “elections” are likely to mark a turning point in President Vladimir Putin’s behavior at home, abroad, and toward those Russians who oppose him. While optimists may hope he will use his unchallenged power to make peace and reduce repression, many... MORE

Executive Summary: Li Qiang’s government work report offered no significant incentives to help the nation’s three sectors most in need of government support. Economic targets were practically identical to those for 2023 but will be harder to achieve. Xi amassed more power through sidelining Li... MORE