It is exceedingly difficult to cobble together a rational formula to explain the current state of affairs in Belarus. Nevertheless, the idea of fear, and its underpinnings, may serve as a key indicator here—that is, fear of further involvement in the war against Ukraine, which... MORE

Executive Summary Starting in the 2010s, the use of “security for hire” and paramilitary, non-state actors has been on the rise. Given its expanding geo-economic and geopolitical ambitions—best expressed by the Belt and Road Initiative—China, akin to other actors, will need to ensure physical security... MORE

As the combat situation for Russian forces in Ukraine continues to worsen and as political tensions grow within and around the Kremlin, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya, publicly criticized Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin for the Russian defeat in Lyman. Additionally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the nominal... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The front lines cutting across the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions do not coincide with the Russian-declared “borders” vis-à-vis Ukraine. Under the treaties on the two regions’ incorporation as Russian oblasts (September 30) and the corresponding additions to Russia’s... MORE

When former US President Ronald Reagan described the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) as “an evil empire” in 1983, he did not so much transform the situation on the ground as he changed the way the nations and peoples within the Soviet Union and... MORE

Russian President Vladimir Putin, having announced the holding of referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine, automatically launched the mobilization mechanism in Russia. But what will this mobilization entail? First, it will create a large number of poorly trained replacements to maintain numbers. In the... MORE

In July 2022, military analysts loyal to the Kremlin noted that Russia lacked the manpower for a massive offensive (Topwar.ru, July 23). At the beginning of September, Russian pro-war experts predicted a “radical increase in the Russian contingent” due to the transfer of other units... MORE

On October 7, celebrations in Russia for President Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday were rather muted and distinctly half-hearted. For the big day, Putin opted to stage an informal gathering of six leaders from post-Soviet states—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan—in St. Petersburg. The formal... MORE

Many observers have long noted the paradox that the so-called “Russian Federation” is in fact no federation at all. It cannot be compared with well-known federations around the world—such as the United States or Germany—where the authorities of the states and lands are freely elected... MORE

Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin’s attempts to escalate the political situation and prevent defeat on the battlefield through mobilization, nuclear blackmail and possibly even sabotage on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea raise the question: How do all these factors influence the... MORE