Defections and Leadership Losses are Leading to Abu Sayyaf’s Demise Philippine army operations are further eroding the threat from Abu Sayyaf at the same time as Indonesian security forces are neutralizing remnants of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Mujahidin Indonesia Timor (MIT). If these trends continue,... MORE

Three months ago, the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs From Ukrainian Ports (“Grain Agreement”) was signed in Istanbul, Turkey (see EDM, September 13). The deal lifted the Russian naval blockade of three key Ukrainian seaports—Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi—for the safe passage... MORE

What had been a long-running local conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan regarding the delimitation of borders and the fate of exclaves has now expanded over the past two weeks to include major military units and the targeting of infrastructure deep within the territory of both... MORE

On October 28, Russia announced the successful end of its “partial mobilization” campaign. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared that 300,000 soldiers had been mobilized, with 13,000 volunteers among them. Moreover, he added that further mobilization will not be needed, and the armed forces will... MORE

Introduction In mid-July, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and the Pakistan Navy (PN) held the “Sea Guardians-2” exercise in the waters off Shanghai (China Brief, October 4; Pakistan Television, July 12). The joint naval drills focused on neutralizing maritime security threats, particularly those that... MORE

Introduction Chinese diplomats contend that Beijing’s position on the “Russia-Ukraine conflict” (俄乌冲突  E wu chongtu) or the “Ukraine issue” (乌克兰问题, Wukelan wenti ) is “consistent and clear” (一贯的、明确的,  yiguan de, mingque de) (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], May 5). However, China’s... MORE

One of the most critical issues holding back peace and normalization in the South Caucasus is the fact that Turkish–Armenian relations have still not been normalized; that is, the borders between the two countries are closed, and official diplomatic relations have not been established. These... MORE

On October 14, the Hungarian government and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched a nationwide survey regarding the European Union’s sanctions policy against Russia. The survey asked Hungarian citizens to share their opinions on the energy sanctions introduced by the European bloc in response to Russia’s... MORE

In the wake of caustic remarks directed by Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka toward former British Prime Minister Liz Truss (YouTube, October 22), the former Belarusian diplomat, now a political commentator in exile, Pavel Matsukevich was asked “if the election of a new British prime minister... MORE

Two recent events—the Ukrainian parliament’s October 18 declaration that Chechnya is a Russian-occupied territory and the arrival in Ukraine of a group of Chechen and Syrian war veterans led by Abdulhakim al-Shishani—reflect a significant shift in Kyiv’s policy toward non-Russian minority groups, especially in the... MORE