Executive Summary: In August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that Ukrainian attack drones en route to Russia had entered Belarusian airspace, provoking a harsh response from Minsk. Official Minsk’s decision to withdraw troops from the border had demonstrated a willingness to act in ways that... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in altering the narrative of Russia’s dominance in the war, sending a shockwave into Russian society,... MORE

Please note: This article was originally published in Militant Leadership Monitor on May 21 and would normally require a subscription to view. It is being made free for the purpose of publicizing information regarding Yahya Sinwar, who was selected as chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 16, three Islamic State-associated gunmen killed six worshippers at a Shia mosque in Muscat. This was the first al-Qaeda or Islamic State attack in Oman, despite its proximity to Islamist hubs and relatively friendly relationship with Israel. The three attackers were... MORE

Executive Summary: Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) took over Kpekakandi Base in northern Togo on July 20. This represents an expansion of the group’s operational focus in the area toward Togo, moving beyond their primary zone of activity along Burkina Faso’s border... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 24, an ethnic Meitei militia, the Arambai Tenggol, forced the government of India’s insurgency-wracked Manipur State to capitulate to a six-point list of demands. While this event was unprecedented, it was made possible by “tacit patronage” from the ruling Bharatiya Janata... MORE

Executive Summary: Islamic State (IS) and its Afghan affiliate, Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), have become increasingly active in terms of operations and propaganda since Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow on March 22.... MORE

Executive Summary: Western sanctions, heavy losses in Ukraine, and short-sighted Kremlin policies have put serious strain on the Russian economy, even if Moscow has managed to weather the storm in some sectors.  The Russian economy is grappling with significant structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves,... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE