Executive Summary: Peng Daxun leads the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), one of three major ethnic militias in Myanmar. The MNDAA, alongside the Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Front, launched a major offensive on October 27, 2023, against the forces of Myanmar’s junta,... MORE

Executive Summary: Western media outlets have incorrectly portrayed Massoud Pezeshkian, who was elected as Iran’s new president on July 5, as a "moderate" and a "Reformist." Though Pezeshkian’s background as an ethnic Azeri may strengthen efforts to try to calm rising ethnic tensions in Iran,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries'... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Russian population overwhelmingly supports the war against Ukraine in the face of an “external enemy.” The potential for protest, however, is growing due to how the war has increasingly disrupted Russians’ everyday lives. Regional protests have yet to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow for a secret meeting the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the US Congress, demonstrating Putin’s scramble to maintain influence in the Middle East. Russia’s renewed interest in the Middle... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military in Ukraine is suffering from various signs of degradation. The longer the war goes on, the more these trends are likely to intensify, threatening Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations and maintain order at home. The battlefield degradation is seeping... MORE

Executive Summary: The “Joint Sword: 2024A” exercise marks a shift in military strategy by integrating China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels with People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces. This coordination enhances the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) ability to leverage maritime law enforcement resources to support military... MORE

Executive Summary: The Resolution from the Third Plenum focused primarily on economic reform but reinforced the Party’s existing strategy rather than announcing a change in overall direction. The Resolution does nothing to mitigate concerns about the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, subsidized export-oriented manufacturing,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Agency, Rosstat, reported increased growth in arms manufacturing industries during the first half of 2024. However, this growth is less impressive when considering physical manufacturing data as it is dependent on ruble prices. Russia was only able to increase the... MORE