Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The development of asymmetric military capabilities, including indigenous weapons systems, is crucial for Taiwan's defense and deterrence strategies against potential aggression from the PRC. Strengthening alliances and cooperation, especially in advanced military technologies and training, is key to bolstering Taiwan’s defense force and... MORE

Executive Summary: President Xi Jinping is unlikely to abandon his goals for Taiwan, focusing on peaceful reunification and anti-independence, while continuing to exert economic and diplomatic pressures. This is despite potential economic downturns in the PRC. The risks of disruption and to economic stability make... MORE

Executive Summary: Civic groups are enhancing “social resilience” by forming self-training organizations focused on preparing for potential conflict impacts beyond just military engagement. These groups address a broad range of issues including civil defense, emergency rescue, disaster preparedness, cyberattack responses, and infrastructure maintenance. Civil society... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming “Big Circle” (Bol’shoi Krug) meeting of Russia’s Cossack movement highlights their growing significance in Kremlin planning and national affairs, akin to the involvement of similar groups in Soviet-era politics. The meeting aims to unify the Cossacks around President Putin and discuss... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is investing significantly in militarizing children and youth, allocating substantial funds for patriotic education programs, youth movements, and competitions. Military service is glorified across all levels of education in changes to the national curriculum emphasizing the defense of the homeland and preparing... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s economy benefited from increased military expenditures, but industrial production is stagnating as growth limits. Heavy prioritization of the defense industry is causing contractions in other sectors like consumer goods production. The Russian energy sector suffers from declining revenues, delayed projects, and challenges... MORE

Executive Summary: Discrepancies between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims and reality regarding the size and productivity of the Russian military-industrial complex are becoming more apparent as the war in Ukraine continues. Official analysis contradicts public statements on the size and success of the Russian military-industrial... MORE

Executive Summary: WuXi AppTec, a major Chinese biotechnology and pharmaceutical firm, claimed that the company has not, does not, and will not pose a national security risk to any country in response to new legislation introduced in the US Congress. The company's claims are undermined... MORE