Executive Summary: The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: The Resolution from the Third Plenum focused primarily on economic reform but reinforced the Party’s existing strategy rather than announcing a change in overall direction. The Resolution does nothing to mitigate concerns about the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, subsidized export-oriented manufacturing,... MORE

Executive Summary: In June, the first pilot production line for photonics microchips in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was launched at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s Chip Hub for Integrated Photonics Xplore (CHIPX), as the country explores new approaches to chip design. The PRC sees... MORE

Executive Summary: The new “Regulation of the China Coast Guard (CCG) Organization on Enforcing Law and Order” formalizes the increasingly assertive actions taken by Chinese forces in parts of the South China Sea (SCS), empowering the CCG to detain foreign vessels and persons for up to... MORE

Executive Summary: The hostage taking in a Rostov detention center on June 16 has highlighted growing problems in the Russian penal system, including overcrowding, a shortage of guards, and a shift in the balance of power between ordinary criminals and political prisoners. The Rostov action... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Armed Forces Departments (PAFD), or People’s militias, have grown under Xi Jinping. This reflects apprehension about domestic security rather than any serious effort at wartime preparedness. PAFD units are staffed by military and civilian employees from local governments. They are responsible for... MORE

Executive Summary: The Comprehensive National Security Concept has expanded over the last decade to cover areas the People’s Republic of China (PRC) perceives to be its territory, which now includes the deep sea, space, and digital networks. Xi Jinping has pushed the totalizing conception of... MORE