Executive Summary: The breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations in Istanbul highlights Moscow’s uncompromising demand to annex four Ukrainian regions. Despite lacking full control, Russia insists on its complete annexation, demonstrating its imperial pursuit of territorial expansion. Russia’s disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and international agreements signals... MORE

Editor's Note: This article reflects an Armenia analysis of the peace process with Azerbaijan. A similar article reflecting an Azerbaijan analysis of this issue is available here. Executive Summary: Amid the ongoing peace process, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published an op-ed on Armenia’s perspective... MORE

Executive Summary: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia.  Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland and Canada highlights the emerging strategic rivalry in the Arctic. Russian commentators present this as a new justification for its territorial expansionist ambitions in the Arctic and beyond. Russian experts see Trump’s focus on the Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, its equally illegal absorption of Ukraine’s Donbas oblast illustrates the lack of respect Moscow has for Ukraine as a separate state. Kremlin officials are openly talking about changing all Ukraine’s current borders,... MORE

Executive Summary: Tbilisi’s ruling Georgian Dream party stated the possibility of returning the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of their campaign for the parliamentary elections. Moscow has not expressed support for reintegrating the Russian controlled regions into Georgia but alternatively for... MORE

Executive Summary: September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War and the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing. Baku continues to demand that Armenia... MORE