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NOW AVAILABLE — How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin’s Kremlin
Ukraine Bolsters Missile Production to Increase Defense Independence
Executive Summary: Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency. The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the... MORE
Central Asian Countries Sending Migrant Workers to Asia Over Russia
Executive Summary: Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions. These moves are... MORE
Russian Attack on Ukraine Becomes Another Attempt at Intimidation
Executive Summary: Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied... MORE
Expanding Iran-Armenia Energy Ties Combat Yerevan’s Reliance on Russian Oil
Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through electricity shortages and sanctions,... MORE
Georgian Dream Hopes to Elect New President With a One-Party Parliament
Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that a new president will be elected in early January. This will be the first time the Georgian president is elected by an electoral college, half of... MORE
Russian Propaganda Fuels Nuclear Blackmail Rhetoric
Executive Summary: Over the past several months, Russian propaganda and reputable analytical platforms close to the Kremlin have increasingly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. On the one hand, these threats are intended... MORE
As ‘Cossack’ Casualties Grow, Ideology Becomes More Important to War Effort
Executive Summary: Russia’s war in Ukraine has inflicted unprecedented losses on Russian forces, with significant casualties disproportionately affecting regions with large Cossack populations. The Russian government, however, romanticizes Cossack history across society to increase militarization... MORE
Ukraine Targets Russian Forces in Sahel
Executive summary: Ukraine is alleged to be providing military equipment and training to the Tuareg separatist coalition CSP-DPA in its armed struggle against Russian-backed Malian government forces. This support is framed as a strategic move... MORE
Moscow Facing Ever Greater Problems Getting Troops to Fight in Ukraine
Executive Summary: Moscow is facing ever greater problems filling the ranks of its invasion force. Increasing signing bonuses and pardons for those who serve are less effective than advertised. The Kremlin is turning to ever... MORE