Executive Summary: The United States is closing its uranium market to Russia, a move that could have ripple effects on other Russian industries further disrupting the struggling economy. Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts increasingly insist that Moscow is becoming a leader in the next phase of global technological advancement and is moving toward the economy of the future. Some official statistics indicate otherwise. Russian production and technological development still depend heavily on foreign-made machine... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE

Executive Summary:  The enormous rare-earth mineral reserves in Central Asia are intensifying geopolitical competition among China, the West, and Russia and have been complicated by their competing agendas. Beijing wants to develop a monopoly on rare earths, the United States and the European Union want... MORE

Executive Summary: An attack by the Iran-based Sunni Baloch separatist militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) on the port city of Chabahar on April 3 displayed an uncharacteristic level of sophistication from the group. These mirror innovations previously seen in attacks conducted in Pakistan... MORE

Executive Summary: The head of Russian state-owned military-industrial corporation Rostec released the company’s 2023 annual corporate report, providing insights into the state of the Russian military-industrial complex. There is no sign of an “arms manufacturing miracle” in Russia despite Russian officials’ attempts to argue that... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s forces in Ukraine face increasing problems with the military, both at the front and at home. These issues are bound to affect Russia’s ability to fight in the coming months. At the front, Russian commanders are dealing with fragging, desertions, and corruption.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Dream government has announced that a Chinese-Singaporean consortium dominated by the Chinese state won the tender for the construction and management of the strategic Anaklia deep-sea port. The port could drastically change the geoeconomic and geopolitical situation in the region, providing... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE